What happens if a prediction market is delisted before it resolves?

It depends on whether the outcome can still be established. If the market was removed after the result was effectively known — trading at or near zero or one — the terminal value is unambiguous and the position can be settled to it. If it was removed while still trading mid-range, the last traded price is not evidence of the outcome, and a position settled at that price is being paid an arbitrary amount. The correct handling is to determine the result from independent evidence where that is possible, and to leave the position open for review where it is not.

Can a platform settle a position at its last traded price?

Not safely, for a contract that pays either zero or one. A last price of 0.40 does not mean the position was worth forty cents; it means that was the last price at which two people disagreed. The contract will still ultimately be worth zero or one, so settling at the mid price pays every holder an amount that was never a possible outcome — overpaying losers and underpaying winners.

Why would a prediction market be removed before it resolves?

On a venue where outcomes are listed as exchange markets rather than issued as on-chain tokens, listings are under the venue’s control and can be withdrawn — because the underlying event was cancelled or voided, because the market is being migrated, or as part of a batch change such as a switch of quote asset. This is a category of event that on-chain conditional tokens do not have, since there the resolution is written on-chain rather than maintained as a listing.

Why does a crypto withdrawal take several minutes when a transfer confirms in seconds?

Because the transfer is the shortest part of the process. Before it can send anything the platform has to wait for your balance to stop changing, since settlement and redemption pay out asynchronously and a snapshot taken mid-flight would move the wrong amount. Afterwards it has to establish that the funds actually arrived at the destination before it writes the withdrawal down as complete. The transfer itself may confirm in seconds; the waiting on either side is what takes minutes.

Why do some platforms refuse to withdraw a very small balance?

Because moving it costs more than it is worth. A withdrawal involves network fees on at least one chain, and below a threshold those fees exceed the balance being moved, so the withdrawal would destroy value rather than deliver it. Platforms that handle this well set an explicit floor and record the skip as a clean, completed outcome. Platforms that do not either fail repeatedly against the fee or silently strand the balance.

How does a platform confirm that a withdrawal actually arrived?

A rise in the destination balance is suggestive but not sufficient, because a wallet can receive unrelated funds in the same window from other activity. Reliable confirmation identifies the specific transfer that delivered the expected amount, rather than inferring delivery from a balance that happens to have gone up by roughly the right number. The distinction matters most when a withdrawal is retried, since a balance check alone can credit the wrong deposit to it.

How can you tell if a trading bot is working when it is not placing trades?

Only if it records the decision not to trade. A bot that logs trades alone produces an identical empty log whether it evaluated the market and declined, crashed on startup, or silently stopped being scheduled. Systems that record a deliberate no-action entry each time they run let you distinguish a cautious strategy from a dead process; systems that do not cannot be monitored on quiet days at all.

Why would an AI trading agent go days without placing a trade?

Because most strategies spend most of their time waiting. Entry conditions such as a trend confirmation, a spread wide enough to clear fees, or a session window are unmet far more often than they are met. A strategy that trades on a genuine edge will hold through the large majority of its evaluations, so a long quiet stretch is normal behaviour rather than evidence of a fault.

Should an automated trader log every time it runs?

It should log every time it makes a decision, which is not the same thing. A run that exits early because it is not yet due to act made no judgement about the market, and recording those produces high-volume noise that buries the real decisions. The useful distinction is between "evaluated and chose to wait" and "was not asked to evaluate".

What does it mean when prediction market prices sum to more than $1?

It means the market collectively prices the outcomes as more than certain. Selling one share of every outcome collects more than the $1 that will be paid out when the market resolves, so the difference is a spread that closes at resolution regardless of which outcome wins.

Is prediction market arbitrage risk-free?

No. The payout is determined at resolution, but capital is locked until then, fees and slippage consume part of the gap, filling every leg is not guaranteed, and the position depends on the market resolving as its rules describe. A partially filled basket is a directional bet, not an arbitrage.

BT365 Articles

What happens to your position if a market is delisted before it resolves?

August 17, 2026 · 7 min read

BT365 Team

BlockTrader365

Here is a situation with no obviously right answer, which is why it is worth writing about.

You hold a position in an outcome market. It has not resolved. The venue removes the market — the event was cancelled, or the listing was migrated, or the whole set was replaced. The last price it traded at was forty cents. What is your position worth?

Why does withdrawing from a prediction market take minutes, not seconds?

August 17, 2026 · 8 min read

BT365 Team

BlockTrader365

A token transfer on a modern chain confirms in a couple of seconds and costs a fraction of a cent. So when a platform tells you a withdrawal is "processing" for several minutes, the natural assumption is that something is stuck.

Usually nothing is stuck. The transfer really does take seconds — it is the two questions on either side of it that take the time, and both of them are questions a platform has to get right or lose your money.

What does a trading bot do when it decides not to trade?

August 16, 2026 · 6 min read

BT365 Team

BlockTrader365

Most automated trading systems keep an excellent record of what they did and no record at all of what they decided against.

That sounds like a minor omission until you try to answer a simple question about a bot that has not traded in four days: is it being patient, or is it broken? A log containing only trades gives you an empty file in both cases.

Why don't prediction market odds add up to 100%?

August 15, 2026 · 6 min read

BT365 Team

BlockTrader365

Open any prediction market with several candidates and add up the YES prices. In a market where exactly one outcome can win, those prices should sum to $1 — each YES share pays out $1 if its outcome resolves true, and precisely one of them will.

They frequently sum to $1.03. Sometimes $0.96.

That gap is not a display bug, and it is not free money either. It is worth understanding what it actually is.